Ten years after the UK entered into a rushed public vote that divided the country and triggered disorder, a advisory emerges from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and voters drifted into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is equipped.
That is the message from two leading commentators from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly tense and monumental referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can arise suddenly and can build support swiftly," the commentator remarked. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have examined the political, financial and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a book, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the matter with a roadshow of public talks that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everyone, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose results have remained undefined because then you land with an extremely polarised community where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the those successful lack clarity quite what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim this point is approaching, and a group called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, making it uncertain whether or when there will be a national vote.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has hidden the shortage of informed dialogue, said the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A great deal has occurred in universities but hardly any elected officials or advocates want to engage with even the basics. For instance, what type of nation would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the book, neither author endorses unification or the existing arrangement. Both composes two essays that aim for impartiality in detailing the rationale for a united Ireland and the argument against, assembling economic and social figures, historical precedents and structural examples.
Discussions encompass identity markers, duties, medical care, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to inform and encourage conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," stated O’Toole. "Discussion implies an recognition of the idea that there may exist good arguments on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they support unity but oppose increased taxation or introducing a new flag to acknowledge unionists' British identity.
"The Irish government must establish what the offer from pro-unification movements is aside from just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist considers a national vote in his era is possible and that it might occur unexpectedly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a poor or a negligent government minister who declares: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid perspectives, he stated. "One side will succeed here and somebody will ultimately lose but each side has has important lessons to learn from the opposing arguments."
Appeal for Broader Debate
Westminster needed to join the discussion, stated the analyst. "This involves Britain. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish question."
